Sales forecast

✅ Why this step aligns production with real market demand

Your product might be ready to build—but how many should you actually make?

A sales forecast predicts how many units you’ll sell over time. It guides how much to produce, how often to reorder parts, and how to balance inventory vs. demand. Whether you’re launching, scaling, or reordering, this step protects against overproduction, stockouts, and lost revenue.

📘 What you’ll estimate

  • Projected unit sales by month or quarter, per channel or region
  • Timing of launch, reorder, and ramp-up phases
  • Links to production, procurement, and cash flow planning
  • Worst-case and best-case demand scenarios
  • Forecast adjustments based on early sales or test market data

🛠️ Tools and methods

  • Baseline Forecast Model

    Use past product data, market size, or competitor benchmarks.

  • Channel Split Planning

    Break down forecasts by D2C, retail, distribution, or B2B channels.

  • Scenario Planning

    Create low/medium/high forecasts to test production flexibility.

  • Rolling Forecast Updates

    Adjust projections weekly or monthly based on sales velocity.

  • Integration with MRP & MPS

    Link forecast to production and material planning in real time.

⚠️ Forecasting mistakes to avoid

  • Planning on the “hope number.” Optimism is great—but plan for risk too.
  • No channel breakdown. D2C launch vs. retail rollout will shape very different curves.
  • Static forecast. Update often—based on real sales, campaigns, or partner commitments.
  • Ignoring lead time. Forecast is worthless if it doesn’t match production and delivery lag.

💡 From launch teams

“We assumed slow uptake—then a retailer placed a 2,000-unit PO. Because we had a forecast model, we scaled without panic.”

– Commercial Lead, HealthTech Launch Team

💡 Sales forecasts aren’t just for execs. Share it with your ops team—it drives every build and buy decision.

🔗 Helpful links & resources

✍️ Quick self-check

  • Have we forecasted unit sales per month for the first 6–12 months?
  • Are forecasts broken down by sales channel or territory?
  • Have we defined what triggers a reorder or production ramp?
  • Is the forecast linked to production, cash flow, and logistics planning?

🎨 Visual concept (optional)

Illustration: A sales forecast dashboard with a bar graph showing projected sales by month. Columns show “Base”, “Stretch”, and “Conservative” lines. A sticky note reads “Retail ramp in Q2 – plan build in Q1”. Below, a Gantt chart links sales to production and shipping.

Visual shows how sales forecasts connect market vision to real-world production and fulfilment planning.
Scroll to Top